AI Resilience Five-dimension framework assessing company positioning for AI disruption

AI Resilience is the only LLM-scored module in the framework. Claude Sonnet evaluates each company across five dimensions using earnings transcripts, thesis narratives, financial data, and peer context. Scores are calibrated against reference anchors to prevent drift.

Dimensions & Weights

DimensionWeightWhat It Measures
Revenue Catalyst 25% Degree to which AI directly drives incremental revenue. Direct AI product sales, AI-enabled upsell, AI-driven customer acquisition.
Moat Durability 25% Switching costs, data moats, network effects, system-of-record status. How defensible is the business against AI-native competitors?
Operating Leverage 15% AI's impact on margin improvement, revenue-per-employee, cost structure. Can the company use AI to scale without proportional cost increases?
Pricing Resilience 20% Vulnerability to seat compression, pricing disruption, commodity risk. Will AI force price reductions or enable premium pricing?
Obsolescence Shield 15% Protection from AI-native replacement. Regulatory barriers, physical infrastructure requirements, domain expertise moats.

Scoring Methodology

Context Provided to LLM

Claude Sonnet receives a comprehensive data package for each ticker. The context is gathered from two functions: _gather_ai_score_context() (base) and _gather_ai_resilience_context() (extended).

Data SourceWhat It ProvidesDimensions Informed
Company profile Name, sector, subsectors, market cap, 5Y hist/fwd revenue CAGR All — establishes business context
AI themes Themes from ticker_themes where category=‘ai’: theme name, source, occurrences, last_seen. Plus AI/total theme ratio. Revenue Catalyst, Operating Leverage
Competitive themes Themes where category=‘competitive’: switching costs, moat signals Moat Durability, Obsolescence Shield
Operational themes Themes where category=‘operational’: efficiency, cost structure Operating Leverage, Pricing Resilience
Transcript summaries Last 2 quarters: headline, key themes, full summary (1200 chars), mgmt tone, sentiment All — qualitative evidence for AI narrative
Financial metrics Last 4 quarters: revenue, YoY growth, gross margin, operating margin Operating Leverage, Revenue Catalyst
Margin trend Up to 8 quarters (chronological): GM, OM, NM trajectory Operating Leverage, Pricing Resilience
Balance sheet Last 4 quarters from financial_health: cash, debt, net debt, FCF, capex, capex % of revenue Operating Leverage (AI investment capacity)
Consensus estimates Forward revenue and EPS from analyst_estimates Revenue Catalyst (forward growth trajectory)
Investment thesis Current narrative + risk factors (if thesis exists) All — qualitative context
Peer AI themes AI themes prevalent in the company’s peer group (from peer_group_themes) Moat Durability, Obsolescence Shield (competitive positioning)
Analyst notes User-written notes (last 10) All — analyst overlay
Calibration anchors Hardcoded reference scores for known tickers (binding ±15 points) All — prevents LLM score drift
Data Independence

AI Resilience does not depend on peer_group_memberships, theme_momentum, financial_health (except for balance sheet context), or investment_theses (reads thesis if available, not required). It primarily needs ticker_themes, earnings_summaries, earnings_metrics, and companies — all of which have 100% coverage.

Calibration Anchors

Reference scores are provided in the prompt to ground the LLM's output. On a 1–5 scale (mapped to 0–100):

CompanyTypeRev CatMoatOp LevPricingObsol
PLTRSoftware54433
U (Unity)Software22211
ORCLSoftware35344
CEGInfrastructure55455
NEEInfrastructure34345
BEInfrastructure32222

Scale mapping: 1→20, 2→40, 3→60, 4→80, 5→100

Scoring Discipline

Constraints

Soft cap at 92: scores above 92 require identified vulnerabilities in the rationale. Every dimension must cite at least one vulnerability. This prevents score inflation from overly optimistic LLM outputs.

Infrastructure Company Interpretation

For companies in Energy, Utilities, Materials, Industrials, and Real Estate, the dimensions are reinterpreted:

DimensionInfrastructure Meaning
Revenue Catalyst% revenue from AI/data center customers
Moat DurabilityContracted backlog depth, supply constraints, switching costs
Operating LeverageExecution track record, margin expansion from AI demand
Pricing ResilienceSupply-constraint pricing power
Obsolescence ShieldSecular demand duration (10–20yr structural theme)
Market Context

US data center power demand is projected to 3x to 134.4 GW by 2030, with $720B in grid spending and 7–15 year capital cycles. Infrastructure companies are scored against this structural backdrop.

Composite & Labels

composite = Σ(dimension_score × weight) for all 5 dimensions
LabelScore RangeMeaning
Fortress≥80AI is a major tailwind; business model is strengthened by AI adoption
Defensible≥60Well-positioned with manageable risks; AI is net positive
Moderate≥40Mixed picture; some AI benefit but meaningful vulnerabilities
At-Risk≥20Significant AI disruption risk; business model under pressure
Vulnerable<20High probability of AI-driven disruption to core business

Impact on Conviction

AI Resilience flows into conviction scoring in three ways:

  1. Thematic dimension (adaptive weight) — the composite score is a component of the Thematic dimension, but its weight is adaptive based on signal strength:
    signal_strength = |ai_score − 50| / 50
    weight = 0.3 + 0.7 × signal_strength

    Neutral scores (~50) carry only 0.3 weight — AI is not informative for this company, so theme momentum and peer standing dominate. Extreme scores (fortress/vulnerable) carry up to 1.0 weight — AI clearly matters, so the signal gets full voice. Other thematic components always carry weight 1.0.

  2. Catalyst penalty modifier — AI resilience continuously scales cross-signal penalties on thesis conviction. Higher AI resilience = smaller penalties (0.6x at score 100), lower = larger penalties (1.5x at score 0). Midpoint at 60.
  3. Proof Burden — for software-adjacent companies with low growth-relevant AI dimensions (<70 on revenue_catalyst or pricing_resilience), a conviction cap and penalty is applied unless growth evidence justifies the position. See Conviction Score.
Why Adaptive Weighting?

Without it, AI resilience dominated the thematic dimension for 40+ tickers that lacked theme momentum and peer ranking data — making thematic = AI resilience alone. A neutral AI score of 50 would anchor thematic at 50 regardless of strong theme momentum or peer signals. The adaptive weight ensures AI resilience speaks loudly when it has something meaningful to say (fortress or vulnerable) and fades when it doesn’t (moderate/neutral).